Publications

* indicates that authors made equal contributions

Peer-reviewed papers

Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England

Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Alex Holmes, Emma Southall, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2022). "Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England." Nature Communications 13: 1106. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28731-9.

Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea

Naomi S Prosser, Martin J Green, Eamonn Ferguson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling, Jasmeet Kaler. (2022). "Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea." Journal of Dairy Science. 105(4): 3559-3573. doi:10.3168/jds.2021-21386.

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number

Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson*, Glen Guyver Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Malcolm G Semple, ISARIC4C Investigators, Michael J Tildesley*, Edward M Hill*. (2022). "Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number." Statistical Methods in Medical Research. doi:10.1177/09622802211070257.

Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease

Matt J. Keeling, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill, Graham F Medley. (2021). "Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease." Epidemics. 37: 100526. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526.

Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

Louise Dyson*, Edward M Hill* , Sam Moore, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Michael J Tildesley, Katrina A Lythgoe, Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Matt J Keeling. (2021). "Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics." Nature Communications 12: 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7.

Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses

Edward M. Hill, Matt J. Keeling. (2021). "Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses." J. R. Soc. Interface. 18(182): 20210214. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0214.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return

Jessica Enright*, Edward M Hill*, Helena B Stage, Kirsty J Bolton, Emily J Nixon, Emma Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd, Rebecca B Hoyle, Lars Schewe, Julia R Gog, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return." Royal Society Open Science. 8(8): 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310.

Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model

Julia R Gog, Edward M Hill, Leon Danon, Robin N Thompson. (2021). "Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model. " Royal Society Open Science. 8(7): 210530. doi:10.1098/rsos.210530.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting

Edward M Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson. (2021). "Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. " Epidemics. 36: e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058.

A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2

Edward M Hill*, Benjamin D. Atkins*, Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2." PLoS Computational Biology. 17(6): e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058.

An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic

Emma R Southall, Alex Holmes, Edward M Hill, Benjamin D Atkins, Trystan Leng, Robin N Thompson, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic." BMC Medicine. 19: 137. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-01990-x.

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

Matt J. Keeling, Michael Tildesley*, Benjamin D Atkins, Bridget Penman, Emma Southall, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Hector McKimm, Erin Gorsich, Edward M Hill*, Louise Dyson*. (2021). "The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 376(1829): 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK

Sam Moore, Edward M Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling.(2021). "Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK." PLoS Computational Biology. 17(5): e1008849. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849.

SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccine escape

Robin N Thompson, Edward M Hill, Julia R Gog. (2021). "SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccine escape." Lancet Infectious Diseases. 21(7): 913-914. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00202-4.

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Sam Moore, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling.(2021). "Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study." Lancet Infectious Diseases. 21(6): 793-802. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2.

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Matt J. Keeling, Edward M Hill*, Erin E. Gorsich, Bridget Penman, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Trystan Leng, Hector McKimm, Massimiliano Tamborrino, Louise Dyson*, Michael Tildesley*. (2021). "Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies." PLoS Computational Biology. 17(1): e1008619. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619.

Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations

Sophie Stanizewska, Edward M Hill, Richard Grant, Peter Grove, Jarina Porter, Tinevimbo Shiri, Sue Tulip, Jane Whitehurst, Claire Wright, Samik Datta, Stavros Petrou, Matt J. Keeling. (2021). "Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations." Patient. 14(4): 435-445. doi:10.1007/s40271-020-00476-x.

Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation

Edward M Hill, Stavros Petrou, Henry Forster, Simon de Lusignan, Ivelina Yonova, Matt J. Keeling. (2020). "Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation." PLoS Computational Biology. 16(10): e1008278. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008278.

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

Edward M Hill, Stavros Petrou, Simon de Lusignan, Ivelina Yonova, Matt J. Keeling. (2019). "Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation." PLoS Computational Biology. 15(10): e1007096. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil

Elizabeth Buckingham-Jeffery*, Edward M Hill*, Samik Datta, Erin Dilger, Orin Courtenay. (2019). "Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil." Parasites & Vectors. 12: 215. doi:10.1186/s13071-019-3430-y.

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S. Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G. Osmani, Eric Brum, Mat Yamage, Md. A. Kalam, Diann J. Prosser, John Y. Takekawa, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J.Tildesley. (2018). "The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh." PLoS Computational Biology. 14(9): e1006439. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439.

How predictable are flu pandemics?

Edward M Hill, Michael J. Tildesley, Thomas House. (2017). "How predictable are flu pandemics?" Significance. 14(6): 30-35. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01090.x

Spreading of components of mood in adolescent social networks

Robert W. Eyre, Thomas House, Edward M Hill, Frances E. Griffiths. (2017). "Spreading of components of mood in adolescent social networks." Royal Society Open Science. 4(9): 170336. doi:10.1098/rsos.170336.

Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence

Edward M Hill, Michael J. Tildesley, Thomas House. (2017). "Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence." Scientific Reports. 7: 43623. doi:10.1038/srep43623.

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S. Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G. Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J.Tildesley. (2017). "Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk." Epidemics. 20C: 37-55. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.007.

Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent social networks

Edward M. Hill, Frances E. Griffiths, Thomas House. (2015). "Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent social networks." Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 282(1813): 20151180. doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.1180.

Preprints

Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 ‘Roadmap’ Projections against Public Health Data

Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill, Sam Moore. (2022). "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 Roadmap Projections against Public Health Data." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2022.03.17.22272535.

The impacts of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic; a retrospective modelling study

Sam Moore, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling. (2022). "Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2022.01.26.22269877.

Bayesian Estimation of real-time Epidemic Growth Rates using Gaussian Processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England

Laura Guzman-Rincon, Edward M Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling. (2022). "Bayesian Estimation of real-time Epidemic Growth Rates using Gaussian Processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2022.01.01.21268131.

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Matt J Keeling, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Robert J Challen, Leon Danon, Louise Dyson, Julia R Gog, Laura Guzman-Rincon, Edward M Hill, Lorenzo M Pellis, Jonathan M Read, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307.

Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour

Edward M Hill, Naomi S Prosser, Eamonn Ferguson, Jasmeet Kaler, Martin J Green, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour." agriRxiv. doi:10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00100.

Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England

Naomi S Prosser, Edward M Hill, Derek Armstrong, Lorna Gow, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Jasmeet Kaler, Eamonn Ferguson, Martin J Green. (2021). "BVDFree England data analysis: descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England." agriRxiv. doi:10.31220/agriRxiv.2021.00095.

Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2

Matt J Keeling, Amy C Thomas, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Sam Moore. (2021). "Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.11.05.21265977.

The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications

Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Robin N Thompson. (2021). "The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.11.08.21266079.

Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England

R Challen, ... , Edward M Hill, ... , et al. (2021). "Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.06.05.21258365.

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study

Michael J Tildesley, Anna Vassall, Steven Riley, Mark Jit, Frank Sandmann, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Benjamin D Atkins, John Edmunds, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling. (2021). "Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.04.22.21255949.

Coughs, Colds and "Freshers' Flu" Survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008

Ken TD Eames, Maria L Tang, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Jonathan M Read, Matt J Keeling, Julia R Gog. (2021). "Coughs, Colds and "Freshers' Flu" Survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.03.31.21251220.

Assessing the impact of secondary school reopening strategies on within-school COVID-19 transmission and absences: a modelling study

Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2021). "Assessing the impact of secondary school reopening strategies on within-school COVID-19 transmission and absences: a modelling study." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.02.11.21251587.

Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK

S Funk, ... , Edward M Hill, ... , et al. (2020). "Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.11.11.20220962.

Book chapters

Edward M. Hill, Thomas House. (2019). "Modelling the spread of mood." In: Breidenbach, Birgit and Docherty, Thomas, (eds.) Mood: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, New Theories. Routledge, pp. 87-108. ISBN 9780429535116

PhD thesis

Edward M. Hill (2017). "Mathematical modelling approaches for spreading processes : zoonotic influenza and social contagion." PhD thesis, University of Warwick.