Publications

^* indicates that authors made equal contributions

Peer-reviewed papers

Integrating human behaviour and epidemiological modelling: unlocking the remaining challenges

Edward M Hill, Matthew Ryan, David Haw, Mark P Lynch, Ruth McCabe, Alice E. Milne, Matthew S. Turner, Kavita Vedhara, Fanqi Zeng, Martine J Barons, Emily J Nixon, Stephen Parnell, Kirsty J Bolton. (2024). "Integrating human behaviour and epidemiological modelling: unlocking the remaining challenges." Mathematics in Medical and Life Sciences, 1(1): 2429479. doi:10.1080/29937574.2024.2429479.

The time between symptom onset and various clinical outcomes: a statistical analysis of MERS-CoV patients in Saudi Arabia

Yehya M. Althobaity, Muhammad H. Alkhudaydi, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley. (2024). "Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study." Royal Society Open Science, 11: 240094. doi:10.1098/rsos.240094.

Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.

Ioana Bouros, Edward M Hill, Matt J. Keeling, Sam Moore, Robin N. Thompson. (2024). "Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings." PLoS Computational Biology, 20(8): e1012309. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012309.

Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence

Phoebe Asplin, Rebecca Mancy, Thomas Finnie, Fergus Cumming, Matt J Keeling, Edward M Hill. (2024). "Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence." Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 21: 20240009. doi:10.1098/rsif.2024.0009.

A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data

Isaac Ogi-Gittins, William Hart, Jiao Song, Rebecca Nash, Jonathan Polonsky, Anne Cori, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson. (2024). "A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data." Epidemics, 47: 100773. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100773.

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation

Phoebe Asplin, Matt J Keeling, Rebecca Mancy, Edward M Hill. (2024). "Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation." PLoS Computational Biology, 20(5): e1012096. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012096.

Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic

K Sherratt, ... , Edward M Hill, ... , et al. (2024). "Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic." Wellcome Open Research, 9: 12. doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19601.1.

Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model

Edward M Hill, Naomi S Prosser, Paul E Brown, Eamonn Ferguson, Martin J Green, Jasmeet Kaler, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2023). "Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model." Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 219: 106019. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106019.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant and Effect of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions, British Columbia, Canada

Y.L. Elaine Chan, Michael A. Irvine, Natalie Prystajecky, Hind Sbihi, Marsha Taylor, Yayuk Joffres, Andrea Schertzer, Caren Rose, Louise Dyson, Edward M. Hill, Michael Tildesley, John R. Tyson, Linda M.N. Hoang, Eleni Galanis. (2023). "Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant and Effect of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions, British Columbia, Canada." Emerging Infectious Diseases. 29(10): 1999-2007. doi:10.3201/eid2910.230055.

Bayesian estimation of real-time epidemic growth rates using Gaussian processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England

Laura Guzman-Rincon, Edward M Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling. (2023). "Bayesian estimation of real-time epidemic growth rates using Gaussian processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, qlad056. doi:10.1093/jrsssc/qlad056.

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England

Matt J Keeling, Sam Moore, Bridget Penman, Edward M Hill. (2023). "The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England." Nature Communications, 14: 740. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-35943-0.

Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008

Ken TD Eames, Maria L Tang, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Jonathan M Read, Matt J Keeling, Julia R Gog. (2021). "Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008." Epidemics, 42: 100659. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100659.

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic

Sam Moore, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling. (2022). "Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic." Nature Medicine, 28: 2416-2423. doi:10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y.

Modelling the epidemiological implications for SARS-CoV-2 of Christmas household bubbles in England

Edward M Hill. (2023). "Modelling the epidemiological implications for SARS-CoV-2 of Christmas household bubbles in England." Journal of Theoretical Biology, 557: 111331. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111331.

Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England

Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill, Sam Moore. (2022). "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England." Nature Communications, 13: 4924. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0.

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study

Michael J Tildesley, Anna Vassall, Steven Riley, Mark Jit, Frank Sandmann, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Benjamin D Atkins, John Edmunds, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling. (2022). "Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study." Royal Society Open Science, 9(8): 211746. doi:10.1098/rsos.211746.

Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England (2016–2020)

Naomi S Prosser^*, Edward M Hill^*, Derek Armstrong, Lorna Gow, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Jasmeet Kaler, Eamonn Ferguson, Martin J Green. (2022). "BVDFree England data analysis: descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England." Veterinary Record, 191(5): e1854. doi: 10.1002/vetr.1854.

Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour

Edward M Hill, Naomi S Prosser, Eamonn Ferguson, Jasmeet Kaler, Martin J Green, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2022). "Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour." PLoS Computational Biology, 18(7): e1010235. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010235.

The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications

Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Robin N Thompson. (2021). "The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications." Communications Medicine, 2: 74. doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00143-2.

Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study

Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2022). "Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences: A modelling study." PLoS Computational Biology, 18(5): e1010158. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010158.

Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England

Trystan Leng, Edward M Hill, Alex Holmes, Emma Southall, Robin N Thompson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson. (2022). "Quantifying within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in secondary schools in England." Nature Communications, 13: 1106. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28731-9.

Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea

Naomi S Prosser, Martin J Green, Eamonn Ferguson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling, Jasmeet Kaler. (2022). "Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea." Journal of Dairy Science, 105(4): 3559-3573. doi:10.3168/jds.2021-21386.

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number

Matt J Keeling, Louise Dyson^*, Glen Guyver Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Malcolm G Semple, ISARIC4C Investigators, Michael J Tildesley^*, Edward M Hill^*. (2022). "Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number." Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 31(9): 1716-1737. doi:10.1177/09622802211070257.

Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease

Matt J. Keeling, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill, Graham F Medley. (2021). "Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease." Epidemics, 37: 100526. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526.

Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

Louise Dyson^*, Edward M Hill^* , Sam Moore, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Michael J Tildesley, Katrina A Lythgoe, Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Matt J Keeling. (2021). "Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics." Nature Communications, 12: 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7.

Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses

Edward M. Hill, Matt J. Keeling. (2021). "Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses." Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18(182): 20210214. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0214.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return

Jessica Enright^*, Edward M Hill^*, Helena B Stage, Kirsty J Bolton, Emily J Nixon, Emma Fairbanks, Maria L Tang, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Louise Dyson, Chris J Budd, Rebecca B Hoyle, Lars Schewe, Julia R Gog, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: Lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return." Royal Society Open Science, 8(8): 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310.

Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model

Julia R Gog, Edward M Hill, Leon Danon, Robin N Thompson. (2021). "Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model. " Royal Society Open Science, 8(7): 210530. doi:10.1098/rsos.210530.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting

Edward M Hill, Benjamin D. Atkins, Matt J. Keeling, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson. (2021). "Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. " Epidemics, 36: e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058.

A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2

Edward M Hill^*, Benjamin D. Atkins^*, Matt J. Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2." PLoS Computational Biology, 17(6): e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058.

An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic

Emma R Southall, Alex Holmes, Edward M Hill, Benjamin D Atkins, Trystan Leng, Robin N Thompson, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic." BMC Medicine, 19: 137. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-01990-x.

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

Matt J. Keeling, Michael Tildesley^*, Benjamin D Atkins, Bridget Penman, Emma Southall, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Hector McKimm, Erin Gorsich, Edward M Hill^*, Louise Dyson^*. (2021). "The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 376(1829): 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK

Sam Moore, Edward M Hill, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling.(2021). "Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK." PLoS Computational Biology, 17(5): e1008849. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849.

SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccine escape

Robin N Thompson, Edward M Hill, Julia R Gog. (2021). "SARS-CoV-2 incidence and vaccine escape." Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21(7): 913-914. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00202-4.

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Sam Moore, Edward M Hill, Michael J Tildesley, Louise Dyson, Matt J Keeling.(2021). "Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study." Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21(6): 793-802. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2.

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Matt J. Keeling, Edward M Hill^*, Erin E. Gorsich, Bridget Penman, Glen Guyver-Fletcher, Alex Holmes, Trystan Leng, Hector McKimm, Massimiliano Tamborrino, Louise Dyson^*, Michael Tildesley^*. (2021). "Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies." PLoS Computational Biology, 17(1): e1008619. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619.

Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations

Sophie Stanizewska, Edward M Hill, Richard Grant, Peter Grove, Jarina Porter, Tinevimbo Shiri, Sue Tulip, Jane Whitehurst, Claire Wright, Samik Datta, Stavros Petrou, Matt J. Keeling. (2021). "Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations." Patient, 14(4): 435-445. doi:10.1007/s40271-020-00476-x.

Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation

Edward M Hill, Stavros Petrou, Henry Forster, Simon de Lusignan, Ivelina Yonova, Matt J. Keeling. (2020). "Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation." PLoS Computational Biology, 16(10): e1008278. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008278.

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

Edward M Hill, Stavros Petrou, Simon de Lusignan, Ivelina Yonova, Matt J. Keeling. (2019). "Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation." PLoS Computational Biology, 15(10): e1007096. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil

Elizabeth Buckingham-Jeffery^*, Edward M Hill^*, Samik Datta, Erin Dilger, Orin Courtenay. (2019). "Spatio-temporal modelling of Leishmania infantum infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil." Parasites & Vectors, 12: 215. doi:10.1186/s13071-019-3430-y.

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S. Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G. Osmani, Eric Brum, Mat Yamage, Md. A. Kalam, Diann J. Prosser, John Y. Takekawa, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J.Tildesley. (2018). "The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh." PLoS Computational Biology, 14(9): e1006439. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439.

How predictable are flu pandemics?

Edward M Hill, Michael J. Tildesley, Thomas House. (2017). "How predictable are flu pandemics?" Significance, 14(6): 30-35. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01090.x

Spreading of components of mood in adolescent social networks

Robert W. Eyre, Thomas House, Edward M Hill, Frances E. Griffiths. (2017). "Spreading of components of mood in adolescent social networks." Royal Society Open Science, 4(9): 170336. doi:10.1098/rsos.170336.

Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence

Edward M Hill, Michael J. Tildesley, Thomas House. (2017). "Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence." Scientific Reports, 7: 43623. doi:10.1038/srep43623.

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S. Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G. Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J.Tildesley. (2017). "Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk." Epidemics, 20C: 37-55. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.007.

Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent social networks

Edward M. Hill, Frances E. Griffiths, Thomas House. (2015). "Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent social networks." Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282(1813): 20151180. doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.1180.

Preprints

Probability of Extinction and Peak Time for Multi-Type Epidemics with Application to Covid-19 Variants of Concern

Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Louise Dyson, Edward M Hill, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall, Thomas House. (2024). "Cost-effectiveness of routine COVID-19 adult vaccination programmes in England." Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5021345.

Cost-effectiveness of routine COVID-19 adult vaccination programmes in England

Matt J Keeling, Edward M Hill, Stavros Petrou, Phuong Bich Tran, May Ee Png, Sophie Staniszewska, Corinna Clark, Katie Hassel, Julia Stowe, Nick Andrews. (2024). "Cost-effectiveness of routine COVID-19 adult vaccination programmes in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2024.11.08.24316972.

Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans

Daniel Higgins, Joshua Looker, Robert Sunnucks, Jonathan Carruthers, Thomas Finnie, Matt J Keeling, Edward M Hill. (2024). "Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2024.09.01.24312235.

Unifying human infectious disease models and real-time awareness of population- and subpopulation-level intervention effectiveness

Rachel L Seibel, Michael J Tildesley, Edward M Hill. (2024). "Unifying human infectious disease models and real-time awareness of population- and subpopulation-level intervention effectiveness." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2024.01.17.24301344.

Scenario modelling for diminished influenza seasons during 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 in England

Edward M Hill, Matt J Keeling. (2022). "Scenario modelling for diminished influenza seasons during 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2022.10.27.22281628.

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Matt J Keeling, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Robert J Challen, Leon Danon, Louise Dyson, Julia R Gog, Laura Guzman-Rincon, Edward M Hill, Lorenzo M Pellis, Jonathan M Read, Michael J Tildesley. (2021). "Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307.

Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2

Matt J Keeling, Amy C Thomas, Edward M Hill, Robin N Thompson, Louise Dyson, Michael J Tildesley, Sam Moore. (2021). "Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.11.05.21265977.

Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England

R Challen, ... , Edward M Hill, ... , et al. (2021). "Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2021.06.05.21258365.

Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK

S Funk, ... , Edward M Hill, ... , et al. (2020). "Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK." medRxiv. doi:10.1101/2020.11.11.20220962.

Book chapters

Edward M. Hill, Thomas House. (2019). "Modelling the spread of mood." In: Breidenbach, Birgit and Docherty, Thomas, (eds.) Mood: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, New Theories. Routledge, pp. 87-108. ISBN 9780429535116

PhD thesis

Edward M. Hill (2017). "Mathematical modelling approaches for spreading processes : zoonotic influenza and social contagion." PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

Ed Hill